Adam & Co.'s Mens March Madness Final Four Analysis and Predictions
- Gardner Rees
- 8 hours ago
- 12 min read
By Adam S. '25
I LOVE MARCH!!! Despite the complaints about this year being an overly chalky tournament—with all four number 1 seeds making the Final 4—I’ve really enjoyed the high-level basketball that has been played in this tournament. Before the tournament, I read an article stating that the #1 through #4 seeds were all the most efficient group of teams for their respective seed of all time (meaning the four #1 seeds this year were statistically better than any other group of #1 seeds in any other tournament, ever). So, while this tournament has been chalky as a result of these top seeds being so, so good, the basketball being played has been super high quality. I’m PSYCHED for more high-level ball to be played this weekend, and confident that the four #1 seed Final 4 will deliver with some close, action-packed games. The best may be yet to come…
Tournament MVP (ft. Vickram Agarwal, Wells Rees):
Adam: Cooper Flagg, Duke. Yeah, it’s boring. For years now, Cooper Flagg has been praised by basketball analysts as one of the best NBA prospects of all time. A product of Newport, Maine, Flagg had a decorated high school basketball career at Montverde Academy in Florida, winning multiple national player of the year awards, while leading the Eagles to a 34-0 undefeated season and a national high school championship his junior year. Flagg, who is currently just 18, reclassified his sophomore year to the Class of 2024 (he should be a high school senior right now). Despite the reclassification, Flagg is still the runaway favorite to be the #1 pick in this summer’s NBA draft after a dominant freshman season with the Duke Blue Devils. And, in the tournament, coming off of an ankle injury which he suffered in the ACC tournament, Flagg has been just as spectacular, besting his regular season averages at 19.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game. In a 100-93 win over Arizona, Flagg dropped 30, dominating the Wildcats. However, what continues to impress me the most about Flagg is that he is great on both sides of the ball. In the tournament, Flagg has been not only a force on offense, guaranteeing the Blue Devils 20, 7, and 5, but also their best defensive player, protecting the rim as a relentless helpside defender. At 6’9”, Flagg is always the most athletic player on the floor, and though others have had more explosive offensive performances, nobody has been more valuable, end to end, as Flagg.
Vick: Walter Clayton Jr., Florida. When you want to get good stats and head to the NBA after one year, call Cooper Flagg. When you want someone to play Duke, call Caleb Love. When you want someone to statpad useless boards and points, call Johni Broome (yes, I said it). When you want to win games, the only answer is Walter Clayton Jr. Watching those final minutes in Florida’s game versus Texas Tech, I got flashbacks to prime Harden or Curry. He is no question the best scorer in all of college basketball. I don’t care if he’s shooting logo shots as long as they go in, and boy, have his shots been going in. MVP means Most Valuable Player—sure, Flagg is an insanely good player, but it isn’t blasphemy to say that Duke would be in the same spot without him. Florida, on the other hand, would’ve been blown out by Texas Tech if they were even lucky enough to make it that far. Clayton Jr. has been clutch, reliable, and fun to watch—that’s my MVP.
Wells: Walter Clayton Jr., Florida. This man is the definition of clutch. More than any other player in the tournament, Walter Clayton Jr. is the reason why Florida has gone so far, and in my opinion, the reason why they will continue to win. Sure, his teammates have shown up in big moments, but any sane person knows that without Clayton Jr., Florida probably wouldn’t have even made the tournament. Clayton is just that good. I’ve heard all sorts of arguments for guys like Flagg and Broome, but the winning impact they have on their team is nowhere near as close as what Clayton adds to Florida. Florida’s success is because of Clayton, and that is just something that hasn’t been replicated by anyone else this season.
Final Four Predictions (ft. Vickram Agarwal, Wells Rees):
Adam: Florida. What stands out to me about this Florida team is its versatility, something that I think is extremely important in March Madness. Florida has their get-a-bucket scoring guards, with Walter Clayton Jr., Will Richard, and Alijah Martin combining for 45.9 points throughout the season. All three guards shoot over 35% from the 3-point line, with the capability to get hot any given game. Of the three, Clayton Jr. has definitely been the star of the tournament, hitting multiple big threes late against UConn and Texas Tech in crunchtime for the Gators. But, don’t be fooled: Martin and Richard are just as capable of putting together big 20+ point performances for the Gators this coming weekend. The Gators also have size and strength, with four 6’9”+ forwards capable of contributing on both sides of the ball (Condon, Haugh, Chinyelu, Handlogten), experience, with almost all of their rotational players being upperclassmen with tournament experience, and one of the best defenses in the country (#10 on KenPom). With this versatility, it’s hard for the Gators to not be a mismatch for whichever opponent they face. When it comes to Auburn, I actually think that it’s Florida’s bigs, NOT their guards, that will be the key for them in this matchup. Auburn’s defensive guards, Denver Jones and Chad Baker-Mazara, are high-caliber and will be able to defend the perimeter. However, I think Florida’s size, which was a problem for the Tigers when the two played in February (Condon had 17, Haugh 16), is an athleticism gap which the Tigers can’t overcome. I’ve got the Gators in a close one.
Vick: Florida. When I consider teams that can win games in March, I look for resilience and, boy, does this Florida team have that. They were down nine with three minutes to go, with ESPN having them at a six percent chance to win their game versus Texas Tech. They won by five. If that doesn’t scream resilience, I don’t know what does. Whenever this team struggles, Walter Clayton Jr. switches places with 2016 Stephen Curry and forgets how to miss shots. But this team isn’t just a one-man show—guys like Thomas Haugh also come up with clutch shots and strong defense when it matters most. While Clayton Jr. is the star of this Florida offense (and arguably the best scorer in the tournament), he isn’t their only option. Florida had six double-figure scorers in their game versus Maryland (Sweet Sixteen). On the other hand, Auburn has struggled to have strong team performances—Sweet Sixteen onwards, they’ve had less than four scorers in double figures, largely relying on monster games from Johni Broome. But don’t think that playing Auburn will be a walk in the park for the Gators; Auburn was the overall number 1 seed in this tournament for a reason. Johni Broome, the potential NCAA player of the year, has been playing out of his mind recently after a slow start to the tournament. While I don’t think Florida will dominate from start to finish, I predict they win on the backs of Clayton Jr. and Thomas Haugh, winning by a comfortable five points.
Wells: Florida. Walter Clayton Jr. has been that guy for Florida this year. As much as that has been true, what sets the Gators apart from any other team (except for maybe Duke) is how complete they are as a team. Sure, Clayton has been dominant in the past few games, showing up big when his team needed him, but it's guys like Alijah Martin and Thomas Haugh playing valuable minutes that have led Florida to the Final Four. In my opinion, Florida has faced the toughest route to the Final Four, battling off teams like UConn, Maryland, and Texas Tech to get there, which should prove useful late in the tournament. Like every other team in the Final Four, Florida has proven that they can both dominate matchups against weaker teams, but what sets them apart is their ability to pull through in tight games. On the other hand, Auburn relies heavily on Johni Broome, both offensively and defensively. As good as the guy is, he isn’t enough to beat the Gators on his own. Not only has Florida proven that they can beat Auburn, but they have already shown that they can slow Broome down, holding him to 8-19 shooting in their win over the Tigers in February. If they can repeat that, they should take home the win.
Adam: Duke. Houston can win this game. The Cougars are the best defensive team in the country and can overwhelm any opponent with their next-level rotations and pick-and-roll defense. Watch tape from Houston’s smothering 69-50 Elite 8 victory over Tennessee—you’ve never seen a defense hustle like that in your life. But, what Duke has that Tennessee, and many teams in the country, don’t have is Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel, high-level, highly-talented penetrators, who know how to pass the ball. As Duke’s leading scorers, and as two of the most highly touted NBA prospects in the tournament, we know Flagg and Kneuppel have the ability to win a 1-on-1, but what makes them capable of picking apart Houston is their willingness to pass. As the competition has gotten tougher, Flagg and Kneuppel have continued to combine for more and more assists, racking up 11 in Duke’s win over Arizona and 8 in Duke’s win over Alabama. With Flagg and Kneuppel, Duke will be able to get into the paint, break down the Cougars’ swarming defense, and find good shots. After a close, competitive first half, Duke will pull away late and advance to the championship.
Vick: Duke. I previously said that I look for resilience in teams when it comes to my picks. With Duke, you can throw that all out the window. Duke has been so good that they don’t need to be resilient —they’re never in a place where they need to be. This team has faced better competition than any other remaining team, and they haven’t broken a sweat. They blew Alabama, one of the scarier squads in the tournament, out of the water and suppressed Caleb Love and Arizona’s potential comeback. This team looks scary. As much as we love to talk about Cooper Flagg, the thing that makes this Duke team so strong is guys like Kon Knueppel and Tyreese Proctor that have—dare I say it—outshone Cooper Flagg in some moments. While I love Houston's gritty play style, I think a lack of offensive consistency and an inability to get to the charity stripe will cost them when it matters. Duke has their foot on the gas pedal, and as much as I hate to say it, Houston will just be a bug on their windshield that goes splat. Give me Duke by 10.
Wells: Duke. L.J. Cryer and Houston have played incredibly this March… but Duke is an entirely different beast. Throughout the tournament, Duke has emphatically proved why they were ranked the number one team in the nation, dominating along the way. Although Houston has shown strength with their gritty defense and coaching (as proven by an impressive in-bounds play to beat Purdue in the sweet sixteen), Duke should easily pull away with the win. Cooper Flagg’s Blue Devils have dominated every single game of the tournament, and I don’t expect them to stop here.
Championship Game
Adam: Duke. Before the tournament, I picked Florida, but watching Duke in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, I’ve changed my mind. Though I think Florida is the most versatile team in the tournament, sometimes talent wins… and Duke’s talent is just on another level this year. In a pre-March Madness article, Jonathan Givony, ESPN’s leading NBA draft analyst, listed his top 100 big board for the NBA draft. According to Givony’s big board, Duke has three top 10 NBA prospects: Cooper Flagg (#1), Khaman Maluach (#8), and Kon Knueppel (#9). In total, Duke has six prospects on Givony’s big board, with Isaiah Evans (#41), Tyrese Proctor (#46), and Sion James (#51). In comparison, Florida has just two prospects on Givony’s big board, with none in the top 10. Before the tournament, I was concerned about Duke’s ability to play together as a team against higher-level defenses. However, these worries were eased by Duke’s dominant offensive performances against Alabama and Arizona—not elite defenses by any means, but both athletic, and top 40 in KenPom. At the end of the day, it's rare to see such a talented team play so well together on both sides of the ball. Duke is the second most efficient team of all time (according to KenPom) AND one of the most talented teams of all time…AT THE SAME TIME. Yes, the 2019 team (with Zion, RJ, and Co.) lost, but they were the #4 team in KenPom in their season, a full nine efficiency points behind this year’s Duke team, who ranks #1 in KenPom this year. People see young talent and immediately want to blow it up and say young talent can’t win. And, while it’s true that young talent does not always produce success in March, this Duke team has proven all year that they can play together and maximize their talent in an organized, efficient system. Florida’s great, but it's the Blue Devils’ year.
Vick: Duke. This is the year of the Blue Devil. Sometimes, it’s best not to overcomplicate things. People might try and make comparisons, such as to 2019, but March Madness is an unpredictable game. It is a travesty to even attempt to compare two different teams across different years—momentum and energy are fickle things, and it is truly impossible to quantify. There is no way to truly compare to runs. But if that argument isn’t your jam, we can consider how much better this Duke team is than their 2019 Elite 8 team (who lost to Michigan State in the national quarterfinal) through statistics. This year’s team held opponents to over eight points per game less than their 2019 counterpart, while having a scoring margin over six points higher. Oh, and they shoot better from deep! It is an injustice to compare the 2019 Duke team to this year’s squad. But the reason Duke will win isn’t because they’re better than 2019 Duke; it’s because they’re just better than everyone. I love watching Walter Clayton Jr. and Florida as much as the next person, but tossing up shots isn’t a sustainable way to win a championship. Even if the Gators continue to make 70% of their wild end-of-game three, Duke has enough consistency and firepower to wear them down and overpower them. Both teams are incredibly strong offensively, and there is no doubt in my mind that we will see cinema. But, in my mind, this game comes down to rebounding and defense. In college basketball, height matters a considerable amount, and getting on the boards is a key indicator of who will win games. Duke’s starting five, the tallest in all of college basketball, run about three inches taller than Florida's. When the games get gritty, teams who win the boards win the game, and Duke is in prime position to win the battle of the boards. Now, when it comes to defense, both teams are pretty strong, but I have one question: Who guards Cooper Flagg? This Duke squad is so deep that it is impossible to try and double someone, because they don’t miss open shots. But, if you give Flagg a one-on-one, he can win that consistently and drop thirty on your head. So, at the end of the day, I love Florida basketball, and I love seeing Clayton Jr. go crazy, but Duke is too strong and too well balanced, and frankly, it's just not fair. Give me Duke by five, on the back of Knueppel’s 20 and Flagg’s 25.
Wells: Florida. If my dad has taught me one thing about March Madness, it's to never pick Duke to go all the way. If you do, they will only break your heart. As enticing as they are each year, it's generally just hard for such a young team to win it all. I’ve thought long and hard about this Duke team; in fact, I almost picked them to win it all. But what’s holding me back is their striking similarity to the 2018-19 team with Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, and Cam Reddish. Both teams are unparalleled in talent; in fact, I have no doubt that Flagg, Knueppel, and Malauch will go top-ten this June, but like we have seen with other incredibly talented teams like this, NBA talent doesn’t always translate to March Madness. There's a reason why they call it March Madness. Often, you don’t see the most talented teams win the championship, and yes, there is an element of luck and randomness to it, but that’s what makes the tournament so exciting. Look at any mock draft online and you will see that most of the guys projected to go in the first round didn’t even make the tournament, much less win the championship! On any given day, guys like Walter Clayton Jr., who probably won’t be very successful in the NBA, can compete and win on the highest level of college basketball. This Duke team is one of the best I’ve seen in years, and I would not be surprised at all if they do win. Take these two teams in ten years, and I’m sure there will be absolutely no contest between the two, but right now, in my eyes, the Gators are a better college team. Florida is a team built to shine under the bright lights of March Madness, and that is exactly what I think will happen.