Adam and Surina's Women's March Madness Final Four Predictions and Analysis
- Gardner Rees
- 8 hours ago
- 5 min read
By Adam S. '25 and Surina P. '27
Are you really a fan of March Madness if you aren’t watching the women’s tournament?? In my opinion, Women's March Madness is the best women’s sporting event of the ENTIRE calendar year (apart from maybe Wimbledon). The sport has really blossomed in recent years, and there really are the dynasties, superstars, and high-flying offenses that we crave and love on the men’s side. This year’s tournament has been no exception… don’t miss out on the fun!! The Final 4 is on Friday and the Championship Game is on Sunday; I know I’ll be watching.
Tournament MVP (ft. Surina Pugh):
Adam: Paige Bueckers, UConn. Ummmmm Paige Bueckers is averaging 29 points per game in the NCAA tournament. Before the tournament, Bueckers was already viewed as one of the most prolific scorers in women’s college basketball, but in the tournament she’s taken her game to the next level, shooting more shots and making them. After shooting 14.1 shots per game in the regular season, Bueckers has upped her volume to 18.8, while shooting at a ridiculous 58%, four percent higher than her regular season average. Against Oklahoma, Bueckers dropped 40, outscoring the entire Sooners team by herself in the second half, 29-23. Certified DAWG. I’ve always been a big fan of Bueckers and I can’t wait for my jersey to arrive in the mail. Go Paige go!!
Surina: Paige Bueckers, UConn. As some people say, Paige Bueckers has been making “front paige news” this tournament. She’s been torching opponents on offense, shooting the three at a clip of 58.3% in the postseason, and Bueckers has been helping the team defensively by racking up steals. After dropping 40 on the Oklahoma Sooners, she solidified her incredible tournament performance (thus-far) versus the USC Trojans. Despite being heavily guarded by Kennedy Smith, Bueckers just couldn’t be stopped. She had 6 assists, getting her teammates involved, and found ways to score by exposing switches, using screens, etc. Bueckers finished with 31. Additionally, Bueckers woke up before sunrise during the month of Ramadan to make breakfast for her teammate Jana El Alfy so she could observe Ramadan while hooping and being away from home. Who doesn’t love a teammate that committed and thoughtful? Hence, in my opinion, Bueckers has been the most impactful player in the 2024-25 NCAA Women’s Tournament.
Final Four Predictions (ft. Surina Pugh):
Adam: South Carolina. This is a good Texas team that is phenomenal defensively. Since the start of March, Texas ranks #2 in BartTorvik defensive efficiency. They’re athletic and tall, and will make this game a dogfight. But, although forwards Taylor Jones and Kyla Oldacre, who stand tall at 6’4” and 6’6”, respectively, could give the Gamecocks some trouble inside, Texas will have trouble against a tough, disciplined Dawn Staley defense. Texas ranks #57 in offensive efficiency and shoots a painful 29.6 percent from the 3-point line. South Carolina will crowd the paint and give the Longhorns a lot of trouble on offense, slowly pulling away late in the game behind the experience of Chloe Kitts and Te-Hina Paopao.
Surina: South Carolina. The Gamecocks have won 3 out of the last 7 NCAA championships under legendary coach Dawn Staley. They are defensive-minded, forcing the 5th lowest opponent field goal percentage in NCAA women’s basketball this season. While Texas is also known for their defense, they don’t put up the most points, something that hindered them in previous games against South Carolina. Meanwhile, South Carolina is a team that can outscore Texas. They have a pretty consistent starting five in Te-Hina Paopao, Chloe Kitts, Bree Hall, Sania Feagin, and Raven Johnson, as well as bench players that have demonstrated that they'll step up when their names are called, like MiLaysia Fulwiley against Maryland. This is a team that will not stop playing until the timer runs out, they will give 110%, and that’s what will help them beat the Longhorns.
Adam: UConn. I think these are the two best teams in the Final 4. UCLA has a prolific offense headed by the 6’7” Lauren Betts, a monster in the post who shoots an extremely efficient 65% from the field. Jana El Afy, UConn’s biggest rotational player, clocks in at 6’5”, a full two inches shorter than Betts. I expect Betts to have a big, big game (maybe 30 points). But, sadly for the Bruins, nobody can stop UConn’s offense. Paige Bueckers is the hottest player in the country, and UConn has been the #1 offense all year, 5 efficiency points ahead of the #2 offense, TCU. UConn doesn’t turn the ball over and shoots a whopping 37.7 from the 3-point line. Efficient and explosive, the Huskies will beat the Bruins in a shootout.
Surina: UConn. After beating USC in the Elite 8, UConn has proved they can build early leads and also withstand counter-runs to win games. Obviously, Paige Bueckers has been dominant, scoring team high points in 3 of 4 of this year’s tournament games so far. But it is the variety of contributions that give me faith that the Huskies can pull off this upset. Freshman Sarah Strong has been a force for the team, offensively and defensively, and despite Azzi Fudd’s shooting struggles versus USC, she can get going from behind the arc on any night. This matchup will be a competitive one and the Bruins, led by 6’7” Lauren Betts are sure to play their brand of ball and score in the paint, but with strong defense and their shooting skills, the Huskies can beat anyone.
Championship Game
Adam: UConn. Who’s the number 1 team in offensive efficiency according to BartTorvik? UConn. Who’s the number 1 team in defensive efficiency according to BartTorvik? UConn. Who has the best player in the country? UConn. I refuse to believe that Paige Bueckers will end her college career without a ring. UConn’s offense is on another level this year, and Geno Auriemma has the capability to play chess with Dawn Staley. The Huskies return to the pinnacle of women’s sports, bringing a title back to Storrs.
Surina: South Carolina. Unlike UConn, I would argue that South Carolina doesn’t have a clear star player, instead they have a set of talented players who compliment each other well. In order to beat the Huskies, South Carolina will have to have contributions from across the team and lockdown defense. It is a tall task to stop Paige Bueckers, and she will find ways to impact the game no matter how she is defended, but if the Gamecocks can force turnovers and get out in transition, they can win. This will surely be a tough game to pull away with, but personally, I’m never betting against a Dawn Staley team. Ultimately their gritty defense, determination, and inspiring coaching should make South Carolina back-to-back national champs.